Thursday, September 19, 2002

The stock market is falling again. I'm pretty much sitting on the sidelines watching the train wreck take place these days, but it is still painful. I mean, what are people thinking? There are over 6 billion people on this planet, and the number keeps growing every day. The only way we are going to be able to survive as a species is to utilize all the high tech gizmos we can lay our hands on. That means that the high tech, and related, sectors of the economy should be strong and leading the charge.
 
So, what do we get instead? We get the bejeezus being knocked out of those stocks. Now, unless you are a stock trader, the daily or even yearly fluctuations in price should not mean a great deal to you. What you want out of the economy is for your investment in something today to be worth more than inflation's bite maybe 10 years out. But there is a rub here: when stock prices drop significantly, the perception by many people is that the economy is in trouble. While that perception is often true, in some cases it is a false indicator, and that is the problem today. However, even though the underlying reality militates for a strong economy, the psychology of the market is leading us in the opposite direction. That leads corporate decision makers to start making pessimistic assumptions about the economy, and, thus, they cut back on expansion/purchasing plans. The prophecy of the doom-sayers becomes self-fulfilling.
 
The real danger is that the companies and technology we are going to desperately need in the near future will not be available because we have killed them now.
 
What is that old Chinese curse? "May you live in interesting times."? Yeah, I think that about describes the opening of the new millennium. I just hope we survive these "interesting" times...

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