Thoughts, observations and warnings on and about our economy

Following are some thoughts, observations and caveats regarding the economy.

>The smell of fear is almost palpable on both Wall Street and Main Street these days. This is truly disturbing because fears like these usually become self-fulfilling. Fear leads to withdrawal, and that will lead to further economic woes. Like I said, self-fulfilling.

>OPEC has watched the price of a barrel of oil tumble by around 50% over the past few weeks. This does not make them happy. As I write, OPEC ministers are meeting to discuss cutting production to raise those prices again. This will mean that the lower gasoline prices will be ephemeral, and that the winter heating season will be truly painful for most middle-class Americans. Neither of which will do the economy any good. However, there is a silver lining in this...at least there should be one: It gives the alternative energy developers an opening. If public policy (ie. federal funds) and private money both converge, maybe we could see our dependence on foreign oil decrease over the next few years.

>Over the years, I have had my own informal economic indicators for downturns in the economy. I look at the number of homes for sale in my part of the world coupled with the number of cars out in front yards with "for sale" signs posted on them. As those two numbers increase, the economy shows more and more signs of distress. Right now, those two indicators are going through the roof. For what it is worth.

>And, finally, from yesterday's New York Times Week In Review section, I saw a piece about Japan's Lost Decade and how we are in even worse shape now than Japan was at the beginning of that decade. That was bad enough, but the even more distressing thing to see in actual black-and-white (as opposed to having an idea that this was true but no actual proof) that we are borrowing about $2 billion per day to finance our spending. I have to tell you that a family compound somewhere in Costa Rica is beginning to look better and better. Buy the land, put up a couple of houses, smuggle in enough weapons to make it very difficult for human predators to mess with us, alternative energy (solar, wind, bio) to keep us off the grid and we are set to watch the US implode from a distance. *sigh* I know, I know...not do-able at this time...more fantasy than fact, but it does show me that the fear I referenced above infects me as well. What was that old Chinese curse, "May you live in 'interesting' times."? I think that about says it for us.