Some thoughts on Thanksgiving Day

I am currently reading Tom Friedman's new book, "Hot, Flat and Crowded", and, while I haven't finished it yet, it has already given me a couple flashes of insight. First, I was reading his description of an address he gave to the China "Green Car Congress" in 2007. In this address, he was talking about the production of clean energy, but that is not what I suddenly saw. What I saw was that Mr. Friedman was describing a form of warfare; a struggle between countries for dominance. In the past this type of struggle has routinely been carried out by those quaint military contests we call wars. In the future, while we maintain a military presence, it appears that the actual contest between countries will be moved to the stadium down the street where economies vie for primacy. In case you hadn't noticed, right now China is, as Mr. Friedman describes it, "cleaning our clocks."

As Friedman so aptly states, we do have the opportunity to reverse this trend over the next few years. If we jump aboard, in a big, big way, the "green energy" (for want of a better word) revolution, we could end up selling this technology and associated hardware/software to the rest of the world. This could very well reverse the flow of money from "out" to "in", and we could go from the world's biggest debtor to being a creditor. And that would constitute a win in the ongoing war between global economic players

Yeeesssss...(fist pump)

The price of a gallon of regular gasoline just hit 1.999 at our neighborhood independent station. This means, I'm sure, that somewhere in this part of New Jersey, I can get the Subaru's tank filled for somewhere around $1.90/gallon if I wanted to search for it. On the other hand, I shouldn't have to fill it until Saturday, by when the price could be down under $1.90/gallon at most of the local stations. I just checked one of my old car diaries (you know...a calendar where you keep track of what you spend on your car and when you spent it), and it tells me that we haven't seen prices this low since before 2004. Oh wait...we haven't seen prices this low since just before Bush took office. I wonder if anybody else thinks that this is just a little suspicious, hmmm?

Addendum (12/12/08): The price of a gallon of regular gas is down under $1.60/gallon. While I am chortling a little, I am also beginning to get a little worried about the signals the market is sending us. At this price, all those people who had parked their Hummers and Tahoes and other huge SUVs will be tempted to start driving them with abandon again. Also, all those investors who were thinking about investing in green energy systems are now probably rethinking their plans. At best, they are most likely putting them on hold until oil prices stabilize for a couple months. I know that's what I'd be doing.

I think that now would be a good time for the government to establish a floor price for gasoline. Let's call it $3.00/gallon for regular. If the price goes below that level, the US Treasury will get some added funds which Congress could use to support new energy technologies and mass transportation systems. If the price stays above $3.00/gallon, then there will be ample incentive for innovators to exploit that price in a competitive manner. Finally, we will all be encouraged by the cost to drive a little less, and that, too, is a good thing. As far as I can see, it is win-win-win with the only losers being the oil cartel and oil speculators. And that is an even better thing...

Oh yeah, speaking of cars...

The price of gas at the local independent gas station (used to be a Getty, still has the Getty sign, isn't a Getty, though) is posted at $2.079 per gallon for regular. Now, I have been privately predicting that the price of a gallon of regular gasoline will be under $2.00 by Thanksgiving. I think the prices are right on to hit that target. I also think that, although we American's have reduced the amount of gasoline we are currently using, that reduction does not amount to a 50% cut. The price of a gallon of regular is now more than 50% less than the highest price I paid last summer (a Mobil station up in Mayfield, NY: $4.259/gallon). What this tells me is that the prices we were paying last summer were the product of speculators getting rich at our expense. I think it is time we did something about those people. They are wolves preying upon the rest of us, and they need to be stopped.

What’s good for the country is good for General Motors, and vice versa

That was the famous misquote of Charles E. Wilson's actual comment before the Senate during his confirmation hearings after being nominated to be Eisenhower's Secretary of Defense. Although his actual statement was much less arrogant, the statement does have some validity. I read somewhere that every employee of the Big Three Automakers supports some 12 jobs out in the economy. And those are just in the local communities. If you add in all the jobs in the automotive sector of the economy, and all the jobs that those jobs support, the automobile supports at least 50% of the US economy. Now, if the Big 3 go toes up, it will not mean the endo of all those jobs in the automotive sector because other economic entities will step in to pick up some fo the slack. However, most the actual production jobs will end up off shore, and that will mean a huge hit to both the viability of our economy and our balance of payments deficit.

I gotta tell you that I get hugely irritated with jerks who go off spouting shit about letting the evil Automakers crash and burn without giving any thought to either the consequences of letting them die, or what would be needed to bring them back to vigorous health. A healthy automobile industry supports both jobs in the general economy plus their stock underpins a huge portion of investment capital in this country. I'm not talking about speculators (or, to use the current euphemism "traders") here. I am talking about all those pensions and retirement funds that have a huge chunk of Detroit's stock. If Detroit goes down, a good portion of the American workforce is going to see their hopes for a comfortable retirement go down with it.

So here is the real dilemma: Trying to rescue the American economy is such a hugely complex undertaking, that there is no way for mere mortals to actually come up with a set of plans that are guaranteed to work. Anything that we, as a society working through our leaders, do will be, at best, a dice roll--or, rather, a series of dice rolls. Some of them will work; will be sevens. Other initiatives will not accomplish what we hoped they would, and, for those, the best we can hope is that they are neutral...that they are not fatal mistakes...snake-eyes or boxcars. We can't let the sheer overwhelming complexity of the task freeze us, because that too is a dice roll.

I don't know what we should or shouldn't do, but I do know that we have to do something. My preference is to take actions that support the industry but do not reward the people who got us to where we are today. Personally, I think that the executives of the Big 3 should all be required to take a 5 year pay cut...to what the average line worker makes...as a condition of any help from the public sector. They are the geniuses who saw the SUV a cash cow. Now let them taste some of what they brewed. But no matter what, we must do something that attempts to work for a positive outcome.

This is the snake that swallows its own tail.

We are completing today a process that began at least two years ago as Hilary Clinton began ramping up her run for the presidency. And, make no mistake about it, almost as soon as today's results are tabulated and verified, somebody out there will begin planning his/her campaign in 2012. It has always been true that presidential hopefuls started running, by speaking at political dinners and such almost as soon as their current nominating convention folded up the tents and went home. But today, the political campaigns are even more overt and ubiquitous. The newly elected sitting president has barely moved into the White House when he starts feeling the hot breath of the wannabe's on his back.

And while I don't expect it to be any different this year, especially from the Republican side, I think that the titular head of the Democrat Party has to back away from the tactical race he has run for the past year plus, and give some thought to defining just exactly what it means to be a Democrat. In other words, I think it is time to give some thought to political philosophy. The thing is, now this is possible without boring the hell out of the general populace. The Democrats have a number of email databases which connect directly to the active and involved rank and file. If Mr. Obama, Ms. Clinton and other party leader could devote some time to actively working out and discussing just exactly what our ideals are, and give some straight talk about what an elected official can and cannot accomplish, I think that the shift in the body politic towards the Democrats could be solidified.

As I mentioned in the previous post The National Republican Trust has been airing some blatantly racist ads these last few days of the campaign. They have proven to me that the Republican Party is truly morally bankrupt and that it needs to be engaged in rational debate at all levels. I am sure that a majority of that party's rank and file will move to other political alternatives when they see how badly out of touch with this country's basic idealism the Republican leadership actually is.

Of course, to look at things another way, the Democrats have maybe three years to show substantial progress in cleaning up the mess left by George Bush, or they will most likely find themselves out on their ears and a new party assuming the reins of power.

An absolute low...

The National Republican Trust PAC is airing an advertisement that, in effect, states that Obama is guilty of radicalism simply by his former association with the pastor of the Christian Church he was affiliated with. Now, Rev.Wright is surely outspoken in his condemnation of the racism that has been rampant in American culture. However, just because he is outspoken in his disgust with the hypocrisy of white America, it does not follow that Obama shares that level of outrage. But, let's face it, Obama is part of the black community...just as he is part of the white community...and, as part of that black community, he must have feelings about how people of his ethnic heritage have been treated in this country.

No, that Republican ad is not only dirty politics, it is blatantly racist in its appeal. That, for no other reason, should make the demise of the Republican Party one of the primary goals of all Americans of good will and open hearts. This kind of evil has to be found, exposed to the bright light of public scrutiny and then expunged, root and branch, from the body politic.